Tue. Oct 15th, 2024

The secession of South Sudan was the beginning of a crisis political reality that ended in a civil war, and although the roots of this fighting date back to the fifties of the last century, but today it carries with it different roots of division, as the conflict that erupted in April last year was a reflection of old conflicts, some of which are due to economic disparities and political exclusion between the center and the parties, and others because of the regional reality of Sudan, which controls the course of the Nile River on the one hand, and adjoins countries that form strong blocs in the African continent, and the political tension that reached its maximum In the current fighting, it is clear that the issue of the division of Sudan follows an agenda of intertwined interests, and the current vision is to create three states, a state in the east that includes the eastern, central and northern regions, a state in South Kordofan, and a state in Darfur.

These perceptions of partition, some of which are attributed to the Rapid Support Forces in cooperation with the Forces of the Declaration of Freedom and Change, are based on geography and open spaces for new crises, as each region carries with it different ethnic tensions, and in a way that threatens a number of African countries that did not try to play a clear role to stop this threat, and remained without any effect when the south seceded, opening the door to the possibility of escalating tension along the Nile Basin.

In practice, Sudan has entered into a bloody conflict that has left a serious humanitarian crisis, and the confrontations of the army forces led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan against the Rapid Support Forces led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo have left great destruction, as the United Nations and its organizations, including UNICEF, are trying to deal with the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, and trying to focus on children who suffer from special malnutrition and displacement, and UNICEF seeks to raise $ 840 million to help more than 7.5 million children, which made the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Guterres, He describes the situation in Sudan as “appalling”.

The conflict also led to the largest displacement crisis in the world, affecting nearly 6 million people and leaving the country for neighboring countries, and this was accompanied by the destruction of infrastructure and property, as the United Nations announced that it needed $ 4.1 billion in 2024 to provide humanitarian assistance to Sudan and refugees in neighboring countries.

At the internal political level, the parties to the conflict agreed to hold a meeting in Switzerland to discuss the delivery of humanitarian aid, in light of the army’s emphasis on high coordination and the commitment of the armed forces to achieve victory, army commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan emphasizes the unity of the army and the people against the Rapid Support Forces, and denies all accusations of the coup in Omdurman, and the statements issued by him put forward his commitment to caring for the families of the victims and treating the wounded, as Al-Burhan explains that external solutions to the conflict will not be permanent and that the independence of the Sudanese decision Decisive in the face of the crisis.

At the regional and international level, the Sudanese conflict has become a space of interest for Sudan’s neighboring countries in the first place, as Egypt seeks to ensure the stability of Sudan due to geographical proximity and common interests in the Nile Basin, and it plays a role in all mediation processes to stop the conflict to reduce the repercussions of the civil war, including the flow of refugees and the impact on water security, while Ethiopia shows concern about the extension of the conflict and its impact on regional stability, especially in light of tensions over the Fashaga area and the Renaissance Dam, and within the field of Sudan. The two countries played a role in supporting the Rapid Support Forces financially and militarily, due to the participation of these forces in the coalition in Yemen, under the pretext of countering Iranian influence in the region.

At the international level, the United States only expressed its concern calling for an end to the violence, and announced that it is considering imposing sanctions on the parties to the conflict, but in the circumstances of the Ukrainian war, in addition to the developments in the Gaza war, its impact in Sudan remains limited, and on the other hand, Russia focuses in the crisis on its cooperation with Sudan in military support and training for the army, and the visit of the Rapid Support Commander to Moscow raised speculation about deepening cooperation, while the Russian ambassador in Khartoum, Andrei Chernovol, carried part of the West Russian positions come at a time when Sudan has not completed the ratification procedures for a Russian naval base agreement in Port Sudan.

The Sudanese scene conveys a situation that goes beyond the serious humanitarian issues left by the war, as it reflects the inability of African countries to intervene in crises that could spread to the rest of the continent, as international attention to this crisis is at the lowest possible level, in light of a global division that seriously restricts the ability of the international system to influence the Sudanese crisis or other conflicts in the world.

 

Written by Mazen Bilal

 

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