Ahmad 
Since the visit of the French envoy Paul Soler to Libya, and the refusal of the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, to receive him, a different picture has emerged of the political mechanisms in the Libyan crisis, which has entered a new phase within many tracks, some of which are trying to reach a solution.
Dabaiba’s bets no longer depend on the support of the European Union, and the tension between it and the French government is ultimately a form of contradiction that has come to govern the Libyan crisis, at a time when the European Union has begun to look at its threatened interests not only in Libya but in the African continent in general, there are European paths that are unable to get out of the framework of American interests in Libya, but they are trying to break the existing equation in the issue of interests distributed on the map of political division, so the approach to international efforts To contain the Libyan crisis has become difficult, and getting out of the division and launching the political process was not linked to supporting stability in Libya, but rather to closing many flaming fronts in Africa, and creating a balance between international powers starting from the African coast and reaching the belt of conflicts from Sudan to Senegal, which also constitutes the “belt of coups” against the West in general, finding a model for resolving the Libyan conflict appears within a broader challenge, and success in creating the “Libyan unity” project creates an African political environment in which Europe and the United States can United win conflict on a broader scale within the continent.
Missed Opportunities
What international efforts have provided is summarized by the crisis of the relationship between the Dbeibeh government and the House of Representatives, which began since September 2021, the main challenge is within the political combination produced by the war and international initiatives simultaneously, as the conflict created forces capable of mobilizing social segments but at the same time unable to compete politically without the cover of “international legitimacy”, which brought the country to the stage of “fait accompli” forces, and when the House of Representatives decided to withdraw confidence from Dabaiba, the political context remained at Sorting out divisions without reaching a mechanism capable of creating a new Libyan government, and this picture applies to the Libyan government, which has also planned its policies independently of the House of Representatives.
In practice, the missed opportunities from holding elections have become clear since the resignation of Stephanie Willems, Advisor to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in July 2022 after the failure of her efforts to achieve a Libyan consensus on a constitutional basis for organizing elections, although she created a different formula by forming the Committee of 75 as an alternative to the reconciliation government, through elections within the Political Dialogue Conference in Geneva in February 2021, and in unifying the government and the House of Representatives, but it failed to prepare a constitutional basis leading to the organization of elections that were Scheduled for the twenty-fourth of December 2021, this failure eventually led to the UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Batelli, putting forward the five-year political dialogue initiative on November 23.
The irony carried by the “Five-Year Dialogue” initiative is that it considered Libyan unity linked only to disputes over election issues, and it, like other UN attempts, is based on a formula for Libyan unity based only on the repercussions of the war, at a time when “legitimacy” seems more complicated because it is based on a network of interests at the internal and external levels, and Dabaiba’s adherence to the presidency of the government is in the end not only to obstruct a political solution, but to maintain a balance of anxiety between eastern and western Libya through which he can deal with conflicting international interests on Within this political context, the issue of Libyan unity has become dependent on the international situation and even the political competition on the African continent in general.
Within this circumstance, the Libyan unity initiative, which emerged through meetings hosted by the Arab League on March 10, 2024, was contrary to the model that has been put forward permanently since the beginning of the crisis, as it gave regional security priority over the conflict of international interests through the sponsorship of the “Arab system” in the first place. Unifying sovereign positions to ensure the activation of their role at the level of the Libyan state.
Sirte Conference
The unity conference scheduled for April 28 under the chairmanship of Abdullah Al-Lafi in Sirte can form a different beginning for the Libyan crisis, but its success remains dependent on the ability to reduce international competition on Libyan soil, as conferences that appear under international auspices are shadows of international clash, and isolating Western interests, although it is impossible, but the Libyan parties can find a confrontation space to draw their priorities again, as the Arab and African welcome carries at the same time challenges in determining the required legitimacy, so the opportunity to progress towards a solution It depends on finding visions far from the political intransigence that accompanied previous initiatives.
The international track completed the picture through the announcement of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, of the appointment of US diplomat Stephanie Khoury as Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs in the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), to make way again for the United States to hold the cards in its hand, as it came to succeed former diplomat Rezidon Zenenga from Zimbabwe, who served as deputy political affairs in the mission since December 16, 2022, and was It is expected that he will continue to work in his position, but strong US pressure pushed for his ouster, especially since the position of deputy head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has become, since its creation under Security Council Resolution 2542 (2020), a strategic location for Washington, with the aim of closely monitoring the Libyan file.
However, the bifurcation of the current roles between the African Union and the Arab League, in addition to various initiatives, has created a different circumstance that pushes the United States to deal more closely with the Libyan file, especially with the exhaustion of the cards carried by the Dabaiba government, and its accumulated problems not only at home, but in the larger space of the United States’ allies within the European Union.
The perceptions of Libyan unity, which have returned to the past and talk of the return of the monarchy, or even towards international initiatives that are based solely on de facto forces, besiege the political vitality of Libyan society and at the same time seek to keep those concerned with the crisis, whether the African Union or even the Arab League, from playing stronger roles in order to find a new approach to Libyan legitimacy that ultimately guarantees the unity and stability of Libya.
In general, there are high hopes that the unity conference in Sirte will succeed in marking a different beginning for the Libyan crisis, if such a meeting is held, which would create new horizons that may reunite Libya, which was fragmented after the intervention of NATO forces more than a decade ago.
Written by Mazen Bilal
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