Hommam Al Nassim 
The Libyan event came to change the lines of conflict in the eastern Mediterranean and opened an extension of the political competition between Turkey and Greece, with the decline of other regional powers.
Although the tension between Ankara and Athens is not new, it took a different position after the escalation of violence in Libya since 2011. The Libyan war was not a conflict of international interests, but also an area of regional fronts that began to gradually crystallize with attempts to restore balance and stability on the basis of sharing influence instead of… Supporting Libyan sovereignty, which was directly reflected in Turkish-Greek relations, which witnessed a crisis related to issues of maritime resources and political influence, and a number of crises appeared on the Libyan scene regarding maritime border demarcation agreements and gas and oil exploration.
Within the general scene, Turkey does not have a sea port facing the Libyan shores, but in return it possessed a form of expanding influence during the phase of the so-called “Arab Spring,” especially through its role in the Egyptian event before the violence erupted in Libya.
In the first years after 2011, Turkey generally supported the Islamic forces that had a strong presence in western Libya, especially in Tripoli and Misrata, and several reports at that stage indicated that Turkey had established relations with some of the factions of the city of Misrata, which had a prominent role. In the fight against Gaddafi’s forces.
Turkish support led to political results in terms of the relationship with the western Libyan government, which signed at the end of 2019 a memorandum of understanding to demarcate the maritime borders between the two countries. This agreement gave Turkey disputed rights on the continental shelf and allowed it a military presence in Libya, which angered Turkey. Multiple countries, such as Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece, which were the strongest objectors due to the historical contradiction with Turkey, despite their presence in NATO.
Turkish alliances
Through this agreement, Turkey sought to strengthen its influence in the eastern Mediterranean and secure its position in light of the competition over marine resources, as it considered that supporting the Government of National Accord at the time was a means to achieve regional balance in the face of the alliances formed against Ankara, especially the front that includes Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, and Ankara considered The agreement with the Government of National Accord has legitimacy because the Government of National Accord is internationally recognized.
The Turkish vision is based on several strategic points:
- Strengthening regional influence, Turkey seeks to balance regional alliances opposing it by supporting local governments such as the Government of National Accord.
- Controlling marine resources: The agreement gives Ankara rights to explore marine resources, which enhances its ability to control energy sources.
- The Turkish military presence in Libya enhances Turkey’s ability to influence the course of Libyan internal events and ensures its strategic position in the region.
The Libyan-Turkish agreement showed a renewed opportunity for Ankara to develop its regional power, as Libya appeared to be a special space in the Turkish quest to create profound transformations in Ankara’s regional and international role, and to deal differently with the energy resources that Turkey lacks.
Greek position
Greece strongly objected to the Turkish-Libyan agreement and considered it a violation of Greek sovereignty and international law of the sea, as the disputed waters for Athens fall within the Greek continental shelf.
Greece relies on international law, which defines the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones based on opposite coasts. Greece also considers Turkish exploration in these areas illegal, and its strategic vision included:
- Protecting national sovereignty: its rights to the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones.
- Regional and international cooperation: Athens sought to strengthen its alliances with other countries in the region such as Cyprus and Egypt, as well as with the European Union to support its position in the conflict.
- Diplomatic and military escalation, as Greece did not rule out the use of military force to defend its rights, indicating its readiness to take escalatory steps if necessary.
In practice, Greece contented itself with relying on international law to strengthen its position in the conflict with Turkey. It tried to avoid bringing tension to an unprecedented situation at the level of NATO, especially in light of the economic pressures it was experiencing, and resorted to its European depth in the first place, where it does not have direct lines of communication. With the conflicting Libyan powers, and not ruling out resorting to military force to defend their rights, it was in fact a political form more than a military one. This position was, in the end, an attempt to push the European Union deeper into its conflict with Ankara.
The main losers from this conflict were the Libyans, who, with their political and social spectrum, became part of the conflicting parties. The government of national unity in Libya objected to Greece carrying out exploration work in southern Crete, considering it a violation of its sovereignty, but this trend was part of the internal division and its submission to international and regional conflicts.
The presence of foreign forces, whether Turkish or other, complicates the internal situation and increases tensions. The Libyan position is the weakest link not only because of the internal division and foreign interventions, but also because of the state of polarization imposed by international and regional powers within the attempts at stability that international initiatives are looking for.
Although the Turkish-Greek conflict is among the “cold conflicts resulting from the influence of larger international powers,” it is ultimately part of the tensions that could flare up in the event of the collapse of the political process or even the escalation of international tension in general, which is reflected on the fronts in the world, including Libya. The expected scenarios It starts from resorting to the International Court of Justice, all the way to the military escalation that seems distant today, or even the continuation of the status quo, which brings with it tensions and skirmishes between the conflicting parties, which prolongs the conflict and increases the complexity of the Libyan situation.
The conflict between Turkey and Greece over Libya reflects the overlap of regional and international interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. In light of this conflict, Libya remains hostage to external conflicts and foreign influence, which complicates its efforts to achieve internal stability and sovereignty over its lands and resources.
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