Ahmad 
Due to the political division, Libya is transformed into areas of influence and centers of power that divide the country. The election impasse does not only reflect internal competition, but also a European will to control North Africa.
The reading of the Libyan elections remains incomplete without taking into account the “de facto” policy that emerged after the collapse of the regime of former President Muammar Gaddafi. In the early years of the revolution and amid the chaos of the spread of extremist militias, operations to eliminate extremist groups from the eastern Libyan region began, at a time when the conflict in the West was creating forces During the operations to remove the radical factions, the Libyan political map was shaped according to the support the parties received in their military operations to end extremist militias such as “ISIS”.
The battles throughout the first years of the Libyan revolution did not create a central, controlling force. Western support behind various factions that over time became supportive of some of the political forces that entered the settlement process, which made the elections a representation of the centers of power and made the constitution and legislation an issue linked to existing influence on the ground, and despite the liquidation of the factions Armed forces are supposed to reduce their numbers; But what happened was the opposite of this path. The end of ISIS left behind new groups that emerged during the battles and took control of the Libyan geography. The large Islamic organizations turned into smaller groups, while new formations also appeared on the sidelines of the war against extremism.
The graph shows the increase in the number of armed groups since the Libyan revolution:
Political and international backgrounds
In the general Libyan scene, there are two governments: the first is the outgoing National Unity Government headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, supported by America and Europe, and the National Stability Government led by Osama Hammad, but this political manifestation does not reflect the depth of the political mechanism that governs Libya, as the two governments are based on a complex network of internal loyalties. And foreign relations, and although the situation in eastern Libya presents a state of greater stability, the political outcome is the divergence of interests within Libya in general, which put the elections in trouble as a result of the sharp contradictions that are consolidated over time. The Dbeibeh government, as a model for the political map, is based on a group of factions that provide it with support. year according to the following chart:
The contrast of the scene between the West and the East
The factional situation in the East has become a utilitarian situation, during which the continuation of the Dbeibeh government remains dependent, in some respects, on achieving the interests of the factions. He not only represents them politically, but also draws balances between them when negotiating for elections or drawing up a constitution, which makes the constitution itself an attempt to place the armed factions within the map of the state and give them a legitimate form by integrating them with the rest of the institutions. This is what leaves the state divided between a group of loyalties and threatens to dismantle it.
The matter is different in eastern Libya, with the presence of a central authority supported by the Libyan National Army. At the same time, the general interests of the government in Benghazi are completely different. On the other hand, it is adjacent to a basic geographical bloc, which is Egypt, which makes its regional relations more stable, in addition to the relationship between the powers. The military transcends the alliance and forms an institution with different wings.
The graph shows that the armed factions in eastern Libya provide strong and homogeneous support to the Hammad government, with a high percentage of support from Haftar’s forces, the Thunderbolt forces, the 106th Brigade, the 302nd Battalion, and the 128th Battalion. This cohesion enhances the stability of the region, facilitates the implementation of government policies, and indicates good management of relations. With the factions to ensure continued cohesion and avoid future tensions.
Disagreements over electoral laws
Election laws were drawn up by the Joint Committee (6+6), and this committee expressed the anxious balance that governs the power map in Libya. It is composed of 12 members, divided equally between the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, but the differences are not limited to the contradiction between the different bodies. There is also a conflict within the Supreme Council of State over the elections, and there is a bloc of Council members estimated at 61 members, out of 140 members, which demanded a new road map, including changing the current government, and those demanding that map insist on rejecting the conditions for running for the presidency included in the election law approved by Parliament. .
The Council is also divided between a team that supports amending the constitution before the elections and another that opposes. With regard to the electoral system, one team prefers the system based on party lists while others prefer the individual system. On the other hand, opinions are divided on the conditions for candidacy, as some support strict conditions such as preventing dual citizenship. of candidacy, while others see the need to ease these conditions. There is also disagreement regarding the geographical distribution of electoral districts, as one group wants to maintain the current distribution while others demand redistribution to ensure geographical justice. The timing of holding the elections is another point of contention, as some prefer to hold the elections as soon as possible. possible time, while others see the need to postpone until political and security differences are resolved. The team also supports open dialogue with the House of Representatives, while others adopt a more conservative position. As for international relations and the role of the international community in monitoring elections, the team supports strengthening these relations and ensuring the role of international monitoring, while Others have reservations about international intervention and its impact on national sovereignty.
The previous data made Abdul Hamid Al-Dbeibeh rely heavily on the support of armed formations and some businessmen. This financial and military support strengthens his position in the face of the increasing calls to change the current government and form a new government that paves the way for elections. As for Muhammad Takala, in his capacity as President of the Supreme Council of State and an ally For Al- Dbeibeh, he plays a role within the Council to obstruct efforts to form a new unified government, and at the same time tries to obstruct the emergence of new candidates for the Presidency of the State Council, such as Khaled Al-Mishri, who is known for his criticism of Al- Dbeibeh, and Adel Karmous, who tends to accelerate agreement with Parliament to hold elections.
In addition, Libya is subject to regional tensions. Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia, as neighboring countries, seek to achieve stability in Libya by supporting candidates or political blocs that are in line with their interests, while NATO countries also play roles through political blocs and military factions spread throughout the Libyan West in particular. Specifically, the United States plays an active political role in Libya, and at the same time its security efforts, through training some of the factions that support Abdul Hamid Al- Dbeibeh, demonstrate the nature of its interests in pushing back some of the forces that obstruct the emergence of a single government, and in a way that accelerates the completion of the electoral entitlement.
One of the most important conditions for holding elections is the formation of a unified government capable of supervising the electoral process, and this requires a consensus that has not yet been achieved between the House of Representatives and the state on the mechanism for forming the government. Perhaps, on the contrary, there are internal and external interests that do not have any direct benefits in achieving consensus for the emergence This government.
Internal challenges, including conflicts between the House of Representatives and the state, and competing external interventions, seem to make it difficult to achieve consensus, and the Libyan forces are now dealing with the reality of division more than creating the will for consensus. The network of international interests is hindering this issue, and the elections have become a Libyan impasse with regional consequences. And international through international competition over Libya and its wealth.
Nidal Al-Khedary
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