Hommam Al Nassim 
The success of the Libyan elections depends on a narrow margin of possible consensus, as there are different perceptions of the objectives of these elections and their faltering path.
The path of completing elections in Libya is moving according to different international strategies, as the possibility of holding them before the end of 2024 depends practically on pressuring the Libyan parties to accept the fait accompli produced by the repercussions of the Libyan war, as the democracy that will be enshrined is based on two basic issues: the first is the legitimacy that will appear after the elections and is based mainly on the anxious balance that reflects the state of division, and the second is linked to the intertwining of this legitimacy with international support for this balance, and this is confirmed by the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, in his statements to the newspaper He stressed the readiness for these elections, and the readiness in terms of legislation and logistics, but on the other hand stresses international support to ensure their success.
However, Aguila Saleh’s perceptions of the electoral path do not start from an absolute step related to voting to produce legitimacy, as the formation of a single government that brings together East and West is the base on which to be based, and this point seems extremely problematic due to the differences that float in the Libyan political arena, as the repercussions of the war did not produce a new Libyan political map, but rather a political distribution at the regional level, which makes any democratic process dependent on the differences resulting from the absence of a strong state capable of creating common Libyan interests.
Saleh’s cautious optimism about the elections was contingent on negotiations with the State Council to reach a unified mechanism to form a single government that can complete the electoral process without tensions or questioning integrity, and this issue is also emphasized by a member of the Libyan House of Representatives, Fathallah Al-Sariri, who considers this government a guarantee of the country’s stability and the effectiveness of the electoral process, but on the other hand he directly criticizes foreign interventions that delayed the resolution of the Libyan crisis.
Internal and regional balances
When Aguila Saleh criticized external interventions, he conveyed one of the complexities of the electoral process, as the elections seem to be a test of regional balances that have interests within the current Libyan reality, which made the task of the former UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Batelli, impossible as he negotiates with international and regional parties through the Libyan forces that are based on Libyan stability is multifaceted, starting with elections that are based on broader consensuses than the Libyan area, and at the same time embody contradictions at the level of the conflict over North Africa in general.
This contradiction is directly evident in the differences between the High Council of State and the parliament, as both institutions seek to draw different arrangements to ensure balances within the country, while the national unity government headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh comes within the roof of the crisis as it represents the balances of Western interests, and puts it on a special base of armed formations that guarantee strength for the survival of that government despite all the political circumstances that have plagued it.
This issue is reflected in the diplomatic efforts of the Arab regime, as the meeting, which took place last March under the umbrella of the League of Arab States, in which attendance was limited to Muhammad al-Manfi, President of the Presidential Council, Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Muhammad Tekala, President of the State Council, rejected any negative external interference in the Libyan political process, and stressed the need to form a unified government to supervise the electoral process and provide the necessary services to the citizen, but the results of the meeting remained statements only in light of the international balance and the Western conflict over the Oil interests in Libya.
The Elections.. and the unified government
The issue of elections and its relationship with the unified government is not new, in 2021, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh assumed the leadership of the National Transitional Council; his task was only procedural to ensure that the elections were held, according to the basic condition that he not participate in them, but what happened reflected the complexity of the situation surrounding the elections and Dbeibeh’s ambitions to control the political process, so the elections were canceled at the last minute, and Dbeibeh ran for the presidency of the country.
The stalled constitutional process resulted from a crisis of confidence created by the National Transitional Council as a potential organizer of the elections, and from this point the focus began on the formation of a new government, and opinions remained about it according to the loyalties that appeared, whether through Dbeibeh’s keenness to sponsor a political situation contrary to legitimacy, or through Western interests benefiting from the state of division, as the possibility that the “unified government” represents a starting point towards holding presidential and parliamentary elections is a problematic point for some parties, as Articles 86 and 90 of the presidential and parliamentary election laws stipulate The need for a unified government for the country that does not participate in the elections as a condition for the implementation of these laws, and the differences over the formation of the government have hindered the organization of elections in Libya, and they are subject to three basic things:
- The nature of the international support that will be provided to this government, as its success in supporting the electoral process does not stop at the limits of internal consensus on it, but also by its conformity with predetermined criteria by the United States, as the failure of this government constitutes a journey of political attrition practiced by Washington, before it intervenes after weakening all parties to produce a government that measures the anxious balances left by the conflicts in Libya.
- Considering the unified government as part of an attempt to favor one party at the expense of another, especially since the government of Abdelhamid Dbeibeh believes that this measure is directed against it, and on the other hand, Europe and the United States are currently reticent to exclude Dbeibeh as a political party linked to the West by a network of interests and relations.
- The nature of the rapprochement between the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, as tensions are possible due to the different legislative basis of both houses, as the House of Representatives is elected, and the High Council of State is appointed as a supreme advisory body to the State.
In general, Saleh’s statements about the Libyan elections constitute a test for all Libyan forces in their ability to deal with all critical balances and the overlap of external interests with the map of the distribution of Libyan local forces, as the prospects of holding elections ultimately remain within an area of winning political cards at the international level, but locally, the Libyan democratic space needs a completely different political context that seeks to draw the interests of the Libyan people in a way that leads to the assembly of a new Libyan political map.
Written by Nidal Al-Khedary
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