Ahmad 
Algeria is preparing to hold early presidential elections set by President and most likely candidate Abdelmadjid Tebboune on September 7th, in light of internal and external political complications surrounding the country that has become a prominent player in North Africa.
These elections come at a time when Algeria is facing many accusations, most of which revolve around political freedoms in the country, the presidential system, and the authority of the current president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who was prime minister during the era of former president Abdelaziz Bouteflika, which the Algerian opposition bodies consider a continuation of the existing power structure.
Current Algeria…and the Black Decade
This conflict dates back to December 1991, when the “Islamic Salvation” Front was able to defeat the ruling party (the National Liberation Front) in the national parliamentary elections. The elections were canceled after the first round, and the army intervened to take control of the country for fear that it would fall into the hands of the “Islamists.” The “Islamic Front” was banned and thousands of its members were arrested.
Islamic groups launched an armed campaign against the government and its supporters, and created armed groups that took the mountains as their base. The Algerian government tried to overcome the crisis through lengthy negotiations, during which the army’s candidate, General Liamine Zeroual, won to be the sixth president of the republic, where the Armed Islamic Group and the Takfir wal-Hijra group began… The mountains were used as a base for attack, with a series of massacres targeting entire pro-government neighborhoods or villages, culminating in 1997.
In 1999, Abdelaziz Bouteflika was elected as the new president of the country, and a large number of fighters began to withdraw and benefit from the new amnesty law. The groups began to disband and partially disappear by 2002, and fighting operations stopped, with the exception of a splinter group called the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, which later joined the “Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat” organization. Al-Qaeda” in October 2003.
In 2019, President Bouteflika announced his resignation, after a wave of protests, and he died two years later, so that Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who held the position of Prime Minister during the era of Bouteflika, took over the presidency of the country, which confirms the continuity of the existing political approach in Algeria after the great success of this approach in preserving… On the unity of the country, transcending “political Islam,” and ending the metaphor of the decade.
Political reality
The Algerian political environment is characterized by a concentration of power in the hands of the president, who effectively controls the three powers: executive, legislative, and judicial. The president appoints members of the Senate and can veto any legislation. He also presides over the Supreme Judicial Council and appoints and dismisses judges.
The military institution represents the most influential force in Algerian politics since independence, which is evident through the presence of the Chief of Staff of the Army in important meetings such as setting the date for elections and allowing army officers to run government institutions and departments. Government institutions also play a major role, as the presence of the heads of the two chambers of Parliament and the President of the Constitutional Court In important meetings, he indicates strong institutional support for President Tebboune, and the number of official supporting institutions reaches at least 3.
Current elections
The following chart of the factors affecting the upcoming presidential elections in Algeria confirms the significant influence of the army:
On the other hand, the presence of 5 small opposition parties searching for a unified candidate reflects the weakness of the opposition, which increases Tebboune’s chances of winning the elections, at a time when it seems that moving the election date forward to September 2024 by a difference of 3 months will be in favor of the current president. As for the media, its role is unclear despite The existence of a new media law.
On the economic level, the rise in oil and gas prices could have a positive impact on the president’s popularity, while the popular movement in 2019 and its continuing influence constitute one of the fundamental challenges. Although five years have passed since the events that led to the removal of Bouteflika, its political shadows still remain, and have a special symbolism. For the Algerian people, non-governmental institutions remain indefinite in their influence due to the laws prevailing in Algeria.
There is no final decision on President Tebboune’s victory. Despite all the previous factors, there are developments that must be taken into account, starting with the opposition’s attempt to organize its ranks. Although these parties lack broad parliamentary and popular representation, and no strong candidate has been announced, the issue of political competition reshapes the situation. The political street and raises many developments and possibilities. In the current elections, three women announced their intention to run, which reflects an ambition for women’s participation in political life, but their real impact on the general political scene will remain limited in the foreseeable future.
Regional role
In contrast to many experiences in other countries, Algeria adheres, regardless of the election results, to a set of declared positions that cannot be changed, in the foreseeable future, whether it is related to Western Sahara or the Israeli war on Gaza.
During the recent crisis in Gaza, Algeria played an important role, using its economic resources as the second oil producer in Africa, and its diplomatic influence through its position in the United Nations, where it called for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the occupation.
At the same time, the Algerian economy plays a fundamental role in shaping its policies, as it is an influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which gives it a great ability to influence global energy markets and regional economies.
Also, investing in infrastructure and technology is part of its strategy to achieve economic stability and promote growth, and these factors play a fundamental role in deepening its influence on regional policies, especially with its presence within a sensitive geographical triangle across its borders with Libya, which is witnessing political instability, and Niger, which has formed an alliance. A new African politician to confront the West.
Amid this reality, the problem of Western Sahara enters as part of the challenges to Algerian politics. This historical position of Algeria has made the issue of Western Sahara an essential part of its foreign policy, which Algeria considers a matter of decolonization, but it uses the Sahara card to balance Morocco’s influence in the region, and it has succeeded in gaining international recognition. on the issue of Western Sahara and made this issue a gateway to strengthening its relations with Europe in particular.
Whatever the results of the presidential elections in Algeria, it will not change its political positions, in the foreseeable future at least, in light of the great entrenchment of the authority and its ability to manage the country, in addition to its success in creating political balances with neighboring countries and great powers, allowing it to play a prominent role, which is reflected in In general, there is relative calm within the cohesive Algerian interior.
Written by Mazen Bilal
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